James Trescothick

With more than 20 years of experience in financial service industry, James is our Senior Global Strategist and the co-producer and presenter of easyMarkets educational videos. When he is not working on educational programs or preparing webinars, you can find him with the easyMarkets team giving seminars around the world.

This week, the AUD/USD pair has headed upwards, breaching the support levels at 0.7550, 0.7593, and 0.7634, and reached a monthly high of 0.7678.

The upward momentum is attributed to the positive economic data from Australia as well as the overall dollar weakness following Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the Australia’s NAB Business confidence survey showed a decline in business confidence. On Wednesday, the consumer confidence surged. The big day was Wednesday when the Employment Change data showed that the economy added 61K jobs, more than the expected 19K. The unemployment rate remained at a 4-year low of 5.4%.

In the United States, the Fed held its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Wednesday, they increased rates by a quarter of a percentage as expected.

The question is, can the pair continue pushing up or can we expect a correction?


Potential Scenarios

Today, there is no major economic data scheduled in the U.S. and in Australia. So, it is likely that technical levels will prevail.

The first scenario is that of a pullback. If the pair crosses the 0.7652 level, traders should watch the 0.7608 level which forms a crucial resistance point and a 61.8% level of the Fibonacci Retracement level. In the unlikely event that a further downside occurs, traders should watch out for the 50% Fibonacci level at the 0.7588 level.

This scenario is shown below.

The second scenario is if the pair continues its bullish trend. If this happens, traders should watch the 0.7758 level as shown below.

The third scenario is where the pair starts a new narrow side by side movements as traders await the Australian Central Bank minutes which comes on Tuesday.

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