Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis. The Australian Dollar slid against the dollar by up to 41 basis points. This followed a report by a government agency that showed annualized wage growth missed estimates. The report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that annual wage growth of 2.1%, which was higher than the previously reported figures but lower than the estimates. Quarterly wage growth rose more than expected to 0.6% v 0.5%.

After the data, the AUD/USD pair fell to a weekly low of 0.7849. This is after another drop yesterday when the RBA released its minutes for its last month’s meeting. The minutes showed that while the MPC was optimistic about the economy, they remained worried about the ballooning mortgage debt. They believe that this debt could unravel especially at a time when wage growth is still lower than inflation.

As shown below, in the past two months, the pair has been rising from a low of 0.7496. It reached a high of 0.8130 and retraced by 61.8% this week. A further drop could see the pair test the 0.7756 level. Alternatively, the pair seems to be forming a new bullish Elliott Wave pattern which means that it may also start moving up.

All this will be determined by the FOMC minutes from the United States. A more hawkish Fed could make the former happen.

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