Today’s main event is the OPEC meeting in Vienna. Since months, OPEC has been expected to find a consensus in regards to cutting output in order to support oil prices. The meeting results, could spark volatility in commodities, but also the USD. In the US, we will have inflation data releases as we will have in the UK as well. Also from the UK, Consumer Confidence data will be released. The Bank of England is also releasing its financial Stability report. The market will also look to U.S. data for catalysts later in the day, including the November ADP employment report, November Chicago purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and October pending home sales.
Currencies: With a string of important data releases ahead, (NFP on Friday, Italian Referendum on Sunday, OPEC today) markets are cautious. Minister Matteo Renzi, who proposed the referendum, declared that he would resign if the result comes with a “no”. Polls suggest that the “No” camp is having a lead and a win for them would force out Renzi and create political uncertainties. Overall the Dollar lost some ground yesterday, however a reversal in the USD trend that we saw lately is still questionable. For the month of November, the Dollar rallied 7% versus the Yen and 3% against the EUR, its largest monthly rise since February 2009.
Oil and Gold: Oil prices dropped about 4% on signs that leading oil exporters were struggling to agree on a deal to cut production ahead of an OPEC meeting on Wednesday. The market will focus on statements from today’s meetings, however there is no pre-scheduled time for any comments to be released. Gold rose on safe haven demand. The trifecta of NFP, Italian Referendum and OPEC meeting has caused many investors to focus on relatively “safe” investments.
Stocks:Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, China and Japan are down but other Asian markets are trading higher. The Dow Jones rose 23.7 points, or 0.12 percent, to 19,121.6, while the S&P gained 2.94 points, or 0.13 percent, to 2,204.66. U.S. stocks had their worst performance in nearly a month on Monday after hitting record highs last week.