1. Today’s eco calendar heats up, but (US) eco data might be overshadowed by tomorrow’s CPI and retail sales. Sterling traders will keep a close eye at UK CPI and at the debate on the Brexit withdrawal bill.
2. US stock markets closed with small gains after a weak opening. Overnight, Asian stock markets trade mixed with Japan slightly outperforming this time. Risk sentiment on European stock markets remains fragile, but the German Dax approaches first support around 13 000.
3. Yesterday, EUR/USD and USD/JPY trading was similar to what happened at the end of last week. EUR/USD traded with a slightly positive bias intraday. A return north of 1.1690, would question recent downside momentum. Next resistance stands at 1.1837/80. It’s difficult to say as ECB President Draghi could easily talk the currency down on Tuesday by highlighting all of the reasons why policy needs to remain extremely accommodative.
4. EURUSD rose strongly through EU trade taking out the 1.1700 level for the first time since October. There was no specific catalyst to drive the pair higher but it bottomed out several days ago ahead of the 1.1550 level and today’s move had the look of a short covering squeeze as longs pressed the move towards 1.1750.
5. Sterling came again under pressure yesterday as press articles indicated that a growing number of Conservative MP’s wants a vote on PM’s May leadership, illustrating the deep division within the Conservative party. GBPUSD dropped as low as 1.3062 before rebounding to 1.3100.