There are a lot of things to focus on this week. The list includes reactions to New Zealand election, reactions to Germany elections, reactions to UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit speech in Italy, start of the fourth round of Brexit negotiation, Moody’s downgrade of UK’s credit rating, Trump’s long awaited tax plan, Japan Abe’s call for snap election. And of course, no one really knows what is going to happen next between US and North Korea.
Euro bounced around like a ping-pong ball in last week’s volatile moves leading into the weekend German elections. EURUSD found its way off the lows of 1.1865 to claw back to 1.2000 in Fridays NY session before opening softly this morning after German election was NOT resoundingly clear for Merkel to form a government. EURUSD is trading at 1.1908 from 1.1960 on Friday.
Another currency that suffered on the back of political uncertainty was The New Zealand Dollar which dropped 0.9 % to $0.7269. The ruling National Party won the largest number votes in the election, but neither of the major parties won enough seats to gain a majority in parliament, forcing a round of coalition building that could last days or weeks.
On Friday, GBP was at the mercy of the broader swings in the euro and the USD as markets awaited UK PM May’s Brexit speech in Florence. GBP initially declined, but soon regained most of the lost territory as the tone of the speech was reconciliatory. The reactions from Europe were mildly positive. Later in the session, the GBP faced another headwind as Moody’s cut the rating of the UK from Aa1 to Aa2. This downgrade hammered sterling which now trades at 1.3547.
Oil did very little on Friday, bar consolidation around the 50.50-50.75 level. The $52 price area is always a key one (at least in recent times) so let’s see how this week plays out if/when we approach that level, not looking too likely to breakthrough just yet. Oil seems to want to recover but it is a slow grind back above $50.