Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

China is the most important economy in the world. In the past few years, the country has transformed itself from a struggling Asian country to one of the fastest-growing one. It has achieved this by educating its young population on business and manufacturing. This has made it the world’s factory. In fact, most things used around the world are mostly manufactured in China. With the ‘Made in China 2025’ project, the country aims to transition from low technology manufacturing to a leading player in the high-tech industry. To achieve this, the country is training its young people and making large investments in future technologies like automotive and robotics.

The country has also embarked on large-scale infrastructure projects. In the past few years, hundreds of new cities have been built, which has helped with the GDP growth. It has also achieved this through international relations. By this, it has provided a lot of loans to other countries with very few strings attached.

In addition to all this, China is important because of the amount of goods it buys and sells. For example, it is the world’s biggest buyer of commodities like crude oil, soybeans, corn, and cotton. It is also a leading producer of key goods like gold.

This week, Chinese stocks have declined sharply after a tweet from Trump on Sunday lowered the hopes of a trade deal. In the tweet, the US president said that the tariffs on goods worth more than $200 billion will start on Friday. This caught many off-guard because they expected a different story. The market was waiting for a deal to be sealed soon.

There are three main reasons why Trump appeared to change his mind on trade. First, there was a belief among the US negotiators that China was not committed to the outcomes of the negotiations. The country has rejected these claims and accused the US of walking away from a potential deal. Second, Trump genuinely believes that the tariffs in place have helped the US. He measures this by the billions of dollars being collected in form of tariffs. Third, he was emboldened by the Q1 GDP numbers that came in at 3.2%. Finally, the president believes that the deal currently being negotiated will not have a major impact on the US economy.

After the Sunday’s announcement, the Chinese stocks had their worst day in months. In the past few days, the China’s A50 index has declined by more than 8% as investors worry about trade. Today, in addition to trade, the index declined after mixed economic data from China. The CPI rose by a YoY rate of 2.5% while the loan growth disappointed. The outstanding loan growth rose by 13.5%, which was lower than the expected 13.7%.

On the chart below, the CNX/USD index has declined from 13800 to a low of 12,425. On the chart, this price is below the 21-day and 42-day moving averages. The RSI has dropped to almost the oversold level. Therefore, while there are risks on trade, there is a likelihood that a deal will ultimately be made. If it does, the index will resume the upward trend.

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