Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

Today, traders will continue to focus on the ongoing trade dispute between United States and China. On Monday, Donald Trump said that the US will place tariffs on more goods from China if a meeting does not take place in the upcoming G20 meeting. China has yet to confirm if XI will meet with Trump. At the same time, a number of companies have announced plans to move their production for US-destined goods to other countries. Google will move its hardware manufacture to Taiwan while Apple’s biggest manufacturer announced that it had capacity to manufacture US phones outside China.

In New Zealand, in May, the electronic card retail sales declined by -0.5%, which was better than the expected increase of 0.7%. On a YoY basis, these sales increased by 3.2%, which was better than the expected increase of 1.6%. The external migration and visitors in April rose by 8.3%, which was better than the expected 3.3%. Visitor arrivals declined by -3.1% in April.

In Japan, the core machinery orders rose by an annualized rate of 2.5%. This was higher than the expected decline of -5.3%. On a MoM basis, the core machinery orders rose by 5.2%, which was better than the expected decline of -0.8%. This was an important read because of the ongoing global trade war. The PPI, which measures the change in price of manufactured goods rose by 0.7%, which was in line with expectations.

In China, the consumer prices were unchanged in May. The CPI rose by an annualized rate of 2.7%, which was in line with expectations and slightly higher than the previous 2.5%. The PPI rose by 0.6%, which was in line with expectations. This data comes at a time when the Chinese central bank has moved to weaken the yuan, in a bid to make exports more affordable.

Later today, investors will be following closely the monetary policy decision in Turkey. The Turkish central bank is expected to leave the late liquidity window rate at 24%, the one-week repo rate at 24%, the overnight borrowing rate at 22.5% and the overnight lending rate at 22.5%. The Turkish interest rates are among the highest as the central bank tries to tame the ballooning inflation rates.

In the US, traders will receive the inflation data. The CPI will rise at an annualized rate of 1.9%, which is slightly lower than the previous 2.0%. On a MoM basis, the CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, which is lower than the previous 0.3%. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy products is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1%.

The EIA will also release the crude oil data. The crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 481K barrels. This will be lower than last week’s increase of more than 6.77 million barrels. Earlier today, data from API showed that inventories rose by more than 4.8 million barrels. The weekly distillate stocks are expected to rise by 1.138 million barrels while the gasoline inventories are expected to rise by 743K.

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