Elections are some of the most important fundamental issues that traders look at when making decisions. This is because an election leads to changes in the fiscal policy of the countries involved. For example, the election of Donald Trump ushered a new era of corporate tax cuts and deregulation. The election of Emmanuel Macron in France led to a paradigm shift and hopes for reforms in the European Union. In 2019, traders will pay a close attention to a number of elections. This article will look at some.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
DRC is one of the poorest countries in the world. However, investors will pay close attention to the election for two reasons. First, it will be the first election that the incumbent president, Joseph Kabila will not be in the ballot. Second and most importantly, the country is the most important producer of cobalt, a mineral that is very important in the battery technology. As the world’s demand for renewable energy increases, instability in the Congo may have major repercussions.
In May 2019, Europeans will elect the Members of European Parliament (MEPs). This will be an important election at a time when populism is rising in the EU. In recent weeks, Emmanuel Macron has seen his approval rating drop to below 30% as demonstrations increase. In Italy, the country is being ruled by a populist party. At the moment, a bill in the EU parliament has caused tensions around the world because it would place liability on online companies like Google for copywrite infringement. All these factors will likely see a more populist EU parliament.
India’s Narendra Modi has been credited for turning around the country and intensifying his fight against corruption. In 2019, he will seek a re-election against Rahul Gandhi. Opinion polls show that while Modi will likely win the election, he will do so by a smaller margin. This will be an important election because India is the seventh largest economy in the world.
In 2019, Hong Kong will hold its local elections. These elections are very important because of the important role Hong Kong plays in Asia. It is the gateway for finance in China. This is where western countries do transactions as they try to avoid the closely watched China. As a result, Hong Kong is one of the leading cities in China. Recently, there have been arrests and intimidation of the opposition parties in the city as China flexes its muscle there.
A federal election will take place in Switzerland in 2019. Switzerland has a unique system of conducting elections where the 200 members of the council are elected from 20 constituencies. The 46 members of the council of states are elected from 20-2 seats states. The president is not elected in this process but is nominated by the majority. This will be an important election because of the important role that Switzerland plays in the world economy.
Canada will have an important election in 2019 where incumbent Justin Trudeau will compete against the conservative Andrew Scheer. Current opinion polls show that Trudeau will have higher chances of winning the election. However, the election will be a test about whether his immigration and liberal policies are working.
No presidential election is scheduled for the United Kingdom. However, there is a likelihood that the country will go to an election in the year if Theresa May fails to secure the required Brexit vote in parliament.