Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

The EUR/JPY cross is an important one because of the size of the underlying economies. The combined EU economy is the second largest in the world after the US while Japan is the third largest independent economy after the US and China. This week, investors will focus on the two economies as the respective central banks make their interest rates decision.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will deliver its first interest rates decision of the year tomorrow. As usual, the bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in this meeting. This is because the country’s ultralow interest rates have not spurred inflation as the BOJ would want. Data released last week showed inflation rate at below 1%.

This decision will be followed by another potential rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB). This will be an important rate hike decision because it may likely provide a forward guidance about the future of interest rates. Investors believe that the ECB will hike in October this year. However, this view is clouded because of a report by IMF yesterday that lowered the global guidance for this year.

The EUR/JPY pair has continued to decline, reaching a low of 124.20. On the long-term however, the pair has been largely unmoved. The price has moved below the three-week and the six-week low. The RSI has as well moved below the oversold level. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair may continue moving lower to the 124 level.

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