Evdokia

Evdokia Pitsillidou, Head of Risk Management at easyMarkets. She specialises in commodities, options and currencies and loves to solve analytical problems and overcome challenges.

Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly review where we look back over the results of some of this week’s economic indicators. It gives us the chance to reflect on whether expectations were met or missed and to examine a successful trade you could have made this week. We expected a quiet week due to the holiday period and that’s pretty much what we got. The US economy continues to outperform its peers though we saw some positive signs from both the UK and the Eurozone this week.

Event: U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

Date: Tuesday 27 December 2016 at 13:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #consumerconfidence

Consumer Confidence came in at a strong 113.70, beating November’s already positive number of 109.4. Outlooks of 108.9 were easily outstripped as the Expectations Index increased from 94.4 to 105.5 hitting a 13-year high. The election result with Donald Trump as President-elect is slated for the surge in economic confidence for both jobs and income prospects especially amongst older consumers. Stock prices also hit a 13-year high as views for the U.S. economy continue to shine.

Event: UK Nationwide Housing Prices (monthly/yearly)

Date: Thursday 29 December 2016 at 07:00 GMT

Markets affected: GBP/USD, EUR/ GBP

Trending hashtags: #gbp, #housing

UK Housing Prices outstripped expectations on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. MoM forecasts of 0.2% increase we surpassed at 0.8% and on a yearly basis forecasts of 3.8% were beaten with a 4.5% result. This is a very important indicator for the UK economy as it shows current action in the housing markets and the high reading was bullish for the sterling. Annual house price growth closed off the year with the same result as 2015, though London fell below the UK average for the first time since 2008 with prices increasing 3.7% during 2016, and down from the 2015 highs of 12.2%.

Event: EU M3 Money Supply (YoY, November)

Date: Thursday 29 December 2016 at 09:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD,

Trending hashtags: #moneysupply, #eur

EU M3 Money Supply for year-on-year came in at a higher than expected 4.8%, a moderate increase to analysts expecting a 4.4% result. The Money Supply indicator calculates all currency being circulated including bank deposits and debt securities up to 2 years. This is a good sign for the struggling euro. Especially pleasing to the European Central Bank (ECB) as it indicates higher inflation to come, and a relief from October’s disappointing Money Supply result of 4.4%.

Outlook for Friday 30 December

Analysts are expecting a quiet end to the year for the news. Tomorrow’s Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index due at 14:45 GMT might be the only one to give some movements to the markets. The PMI indicates business trends in the US and is a guage of overall nationwide economic health. Any figure over 50 is bullish for the already bullish US dollar and with the previous figure at 57.6, forecasts are optimistic.

 

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https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-index/headlines

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/aggregates/aggr/html/index.en.html

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/foreign-stock-investment

https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/japan/foreign-investment

https://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-dec-26-30/

 

 

 

 

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