The economy of the European Union has so far proved its resilience amidst uncertainties caused by the Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections. Here’s a look into the major events that may move markets in the month of June.
June 1: Italy GDP Growth Rate (Q1), US Manufacturing PMI (May)
The preliminary figures for Italy’s GDP growth in the first three months of 2017 came in at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year. These figures are unlikely to be revised and indicate that Italy’s economic growth continues to be slower than most of the other Euro Area nations. The US PMI had declined to 54.8 in April, from 57.2 in March and is expected to decline marginally to 54.16 in May.
June 2: US Balance of Trade (April), US Unemployment Rate (May)
Trade deficit in the US narrowed marginally to US$43.7 billion in March, from US$43.8 billion in February. The deficit is expected to grow to US$44.8 billion in April. The unemployment rate in the US declined to 4.4% in April, from 4.5% in March. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.7% in May.
June 5: Spain Consumer Confidence (May)
Spain’s consumer confidence rose to 106.7 in April, from 99.7 in March, and expectations are for a decline to 105.26 in May.
June 6: Eurozone Retail Sales (April)
Eurozone’s retail sales grew 0.3% month-on-month in March, marking a slowdown from 0.5% in February, and the April figure is expected to show a decline of 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, the region’s retail sales grew 2.3% in March, representing an acceleration from 1.7% in February, and the growth rate is widely expected to accelerate to 2.5% in April.
June 07: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate YoY 3rd Est (Q1)
Eurozone’s GDP growth in the first three months of 2017 had been estimated at 0.5%, remaining flat at the prior quarter’s growth rate. The figure is unlikely to change.
June 8: ECB Interest Rate Decision
The European Central Bank (ECB) had kept its benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 0% for the tenth straight meeting in April, and is widely expected to keep it unchanged at its June meeting.
June 9: Germany Balance of Trade (April), UK Balance of Trade (April)
German’s trade surplus narrowed marginally to €25.4 billion in March of this year, from €25.8 billion in March 2016. The UK’s trade deficit widened by £2.3 billion to £4.9 billion in March due to a surge in imports to a record high of £53.9 billion. All eyes are on the reading for April.
June 13: Germany Economic Sentiment Index (June), Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index (June), UK Inflation Rate (May)
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose to 20.6 in May, from 19.5 in April, although missing the market consensus of 22. It is widely expected to expand to 21.66 in June. For Eurozone, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment increased to 35.1 in May, from 26.3 in April, beating the market consensus of 29.1. It is expected to increase again in June to 37.74. Inflation in the UK had increased to 2.7% in April, from 2.3% in March, and is expected to increase marginally to 2.75% in May.
June 14: US Inflation Rate (May), Fed Interest Rate Decision
US consumer prices rose 2.2% in April, below the 2.4% recorded in March. Inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% in May. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 0.75% to 1% during its May 2017 meeting, as per market expectations. Policymakers are unlikely to announce a change to this rate in the June meeting.
June 15: BoE Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee kept its central Bank Rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25% in May and is unlikely to change this at the June meeting.
June 16: US Consumer Sentiment (June)
US consumer sentiment rose to 97.7 in May, from 97 in April. Market expectations are for a significant decline in June to 95.3.
June 22: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June)
Eurozone’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 0.3 points to -3.3 in May, from -3.6 in April, although missing the market consensus of -3. The indicator is expected to decline to -3.07 in June.
June 23: Germany Manufacturing PMI (June), France GDP Growth Rate (Q1)
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI surged to 59.4 in May, from 58.2 in April, exceeding the market consensus of 58. The reading represented the highest growth in the manufacturing sector since April 2011. The figure is expected to expand marginally to 59.97 in June. The final figure for GDP growth in France in the first quarter of 2017 is expected at 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2016.
June 26: Germany Business Climate (June)
Germany’s Business Climate Index had risen to 114.6 in May, from 113 in April, and is expected to increase again in June to 115.40.
June 29: Germany Consumer Confidence (July), Eurozone Business Confidence (June), US GDP Growth (Q1)
Germany’s Consumer Climate Indicator is expected to rise to 10.4 in June, from 10.2 in May, and to increase further to 10.53 in July. Eurozone’s Business Climate Indicator jumped to 1.09 in April, from 0.83 in March. The market expects the indicator to increase to 1.12 in June. The US economy is expected to have expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017, slowing significantly from 2.1% growth in the prior quarter.
June 30: Germany Unemployment Rate (June), UK Consumer Confidence (June)
Germany’s jobless rate came in at 3.9% in March, remaining flat at the rate recorded in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to surge to 5.9% in June. The UK’s consumer confidence index had declined to -7 in April, from -6 in March, and is expected to decline sharply to -8 in May and record an improvement to -6.77 in June.