Senior Analyst

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Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 01 May. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. This week kicks off with employment data from New Zealand and the key indicators are monopolised by the US with non-manufacturing PMI, oil inventories and jobless claims.

Event: New Zealand Employment (Q1 2017)
Date: Tuesday 02 May 2017 at 22:45 GMT
Markets affected: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #kiwi, #nzd

Employment data for New Zealand’s last quarter of 2016 showed an increase in those looking for work without a job from 4.9% to 5.2%. The increase was because of an increase in the work force participation rate as it was higher than expected. There was a total of almost 20,000 new positions filled during Q4 2016, and salaries increased by 0.4% for the same period. The local economy, which is heavily based on agricultural products is growing stronger as incoming migration continues and commodity prices soar. Analysts forecast that job growth will reach 0.8%.

Event: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Date: Wednesday 03 May 2017 at 14:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Trending hashtags: #usd, #pmi

US service sector grew at its slowest pace for the last five months during March and did not meet analysts’ expectations as the data revealed a decrease of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI from 57.6 to 55.2. Business activity decreased by 4.7 points to 58.9 and was also less than the forecasts of 61.5. The Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 56.

Event: EIA Crude Oil stocks change
Date: Wednesday 03 May 2017 at 14:30 GMT
Markets affected: OIL/ USD, AUD/USD
Trending hashtags: #crudeoil, #wti

US crude oil stockpiles nosedived during the week ended 21 April, however petrol and refined oil inventories increased because of increased production by refineries at their highest level since the end of 2015. The decreasing trend of crude oil inventories continues as the high season approaches, however there is currently not much evidence of rising demand and that could have a negative effect on prices.

Event: US Jobless Claims
Date: Thursday 04 May 2017 at 12:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Trending hashtags: #usd, #unemployment

The number of first-time applications filed by Americans increased for the week ended 21 April to 257,000 compared to 243,000 for the week before and also missed expectations. Nevertheless, the four-week average fell to its lowest level for the last two months and is an indication that the employment sector continues strengthening. Analysts expect jobless claims to fall to 246,000.

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