Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 06 March. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out. The week, the central banks of Australia and Europe release their interest rate decisions, we have GDP for the last quarter of 2016 from the EU and some important jobs data from the US.
Event: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
Date: Tuesday 7 March 2017 at 03:30 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/USD, GBP/AUD
Trending hashtags: #aud, #interestrate
Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the interest rate at 1.5% as most economists expected. This time analysts are split; some see that the next logical move for the bank is to increase rates and with an increase in last week’s employment figures and rise in commodities prices they might be proven correctly. On the other side of the table, a number of analysts are not expecting a raise but are in fact forecasting a cut with their argument being that inflation is relatively low. Keep in mind that during last week announcement we saw a positive end to the year’s GDP. It seems the Bank might go either way, or it may continue to play its cards close to its chest and keep the cash rate unchanged. With such a division amongst analysts expectations, we might just see some action for the aussie.
Event: EU Gross Domestic Product (YoY, Q4)
Date: Tuesday 7 March 2017 at 10:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #eu, #gdp
Tuesday also sees the release of the Eurozone’s GDP result for the fourth quarter of 2016. The previous quarter saw a 1.7% change and the outlook for the final quarter is the same. This data released by Eurostat is an important indicator for those trading the euro as it shows the total value of all goods and services produced in the region. It exemplifies the economic health of the EU so an increase to the expected growth of 1.7% may be bearish for the common currency.
Event: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Date: Wednesday 08 March 2017 at 13:15 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #usd, #adpemployment
This indicator measures the change to employment and is released by the Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP). January’s figure came in at 246,000, the highest number of jobs added to the market for the last six months. This was a big surge compared to December’s figure of 151,000 showing a great start to the year for US workers. As this figure comes before this Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll, it may be watched carefully by the markets as an early indicator to the possibly market-moving NFP.
Event: EU European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision
Date: Thursday 09 March 2017 at 12:45 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD
Trending hashtags: #eu, #ecb, #interestrate
The ECB has kept interest rates at 0% for some time and markets are not expecting to see a change any time soon. President of the Bank, Mario Draghi, has made positive comments on the Eurozone’s economy but has admitted that it is still in a fragile state. Slow growth and the Italian banking crisis are keeping downward pressure on the region. Draghi also hinted that more monetary stimulus may be raised if needed. Following the interest rate release at 12:45 GMT will be the ECB’s monetary policy statement and press conference at 13:30 which may also be worth watching for news that may affect the euro.
Event: US Non-Farm Payroll
Date: Friday 10 March 2017 at 13:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #usd, #unemployment
January’s NFP released last month took analysts by surprise by coming in at 227,000 instead of the expected 170,000 new jobs added. Unemployment also increased to 4.8% but wage growth only went up a modest 0.03 cents.