Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 9 January. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events.
Event: Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. (MoM, Dec)
Date: Tuesday 10 January 2017 at 15:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/CHF
Trending hashtags: #swissy, #chf
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release the Swiss Unemployment rate for December. Previous reading was at 3.3% and an increase to that will show a contracting labour market for the nation and point to a weakening economy. Analysts will be looking for an increase in the rate, indicating an expansion in the labour market and growth for the Swiss economy, which in turn may be bullish for the swissy (CHF). November’s figure of 3.3% was an increase to the previous month’s 3.2% and some analysts are expecting December’s figure to rise again to 3.5%.
Event: US Crude Inventories
Date: Wednesday 11 January 2017 at 15:30 GMT
Markets affected: USD/OIL
Trending hashtags: #oil, #crude, #wti
Inventories of US crude stocks plummeted by the end of 2016 by 7 million barrels. Oil prices increased also thanks to Saudi Arabia agreeing to OPECs output reduction. Oil’s dismal performance over the last year continues to be pressured by a growing US dollar, though the beginning of 2017 saw some light at the end of the tunnel for the black gold as the dollar dipped and a limit on production by OPEC countries seemed to be on the cards at last. Any more pull back on the crude inventories can only spell good news for oil demand.
Event: UK NIESR GDP Quarterly Estimate (Dec)
Date: Wednesday 11 January 2016 at 15:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD
Trending hashtags: #sterling , #gdp
The UK had a rocky year in 2016 thanks to the Brexit vote and monetary policy makers will be watching for the GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It will examine the growth of the economy over the last quarter and though this report precedes the official announcement by a month, it is considered very accurate. Q3 GDP growth (QoQ) sits at 0.6% with services continuing to grow but manufacturing, agriculture and construction down. Overall it wasn’t as dire a result as some expected from a post-Brexit referendum. However, many analysts are still expecting a slow-down in the economy for this year. Current outlooks for the Q4 GDP sit at 0.46%. The pound touched 30-year lows against the US dollar, and has also slipped against the euro.
Event: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Date: Thursday 12 January 2017 at 12:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD
Trending hashtags: #ecb, #eur
One of the most watched indicators in the Eurozone is the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. Summarising the financial, monetary and overall economic health of the Eurozone, this indicator is closely followed by euro-traders and euro-index investors. US dollar strength and UK Brexit have both pulled the rug out from under the euro which struggled in the second half of 2016. The last report published on 17 November pointed to four sore-points for the EU economy – Brexit, US interest rate hike and subsequent dollar strength, Japanese quantitative and qualitative easing and an increase in oil prices. It was noted that global activity and trade growth remained subdued.
Event: US Employment Claims
Date: Thursday 12 January 2017 at 13:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD,
Trending hashtags: #unemployment, #usd
Even with last week’s dismal NFP rate of just 156,000 for December, the US labour market continues to look in good form. US Unemployment Claims, the number of those applying for the unemployment benefit, dropped last week to the lowest it’s been in over four decades. Claims fell 28,000 to 235,000 for the last week of 2016. If more positive data comes out this week, it may be, yet again, bullish for the US dollar.