Senior Analyst

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Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 10 April. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. This week we’ll be doing our weekly analysis on the events on Thursday afternoon. As we head into the Easter holiday’s we have key data coming from the UK, Canada, Australia and Germany. Friday and the following Monday are holidays so economic data is thin on the ground – though on Friday the US will be releasing key inflation data with Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index.

 

Event: UK Consumer Price Index (March)

Date: Tuesday 11 April 2017 at 08:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/ GBP, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #gbp, #ukinflation

 

Tuesday kicks off with the Consumer Price Index in the UK, a key measure of inflation. Retail prices, based on a representative shopping basket of goods and services, leapt in February to 2.3%, surpassing the previous month’s 1.8%. The rise in oil and food prices was the focus of the increase in inflation which hit its highest in over 3 years. The Bank of England set their inflation target at 2% so it’s overtaken that figure, with the central bank now forecasting inflation for next year to reach 2.8% following the fall of the pound due to Brexit. For this March, the expectation for CPI is to hit 2.3% again.

 

Event: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

Date: Wednesday 12 April 2017 at 14:00 GMT

Markets affected: CAD/USD

Trending hashtags: #cad, #interestrate

 

Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has continued to hit home in recent speeches the importance of free trade to the Canadian economy. A proponent of the North American Free Trade Agreement, he is eyeing the Trump administration’s isolationist tendency warily. While the Canadian economy is showing stronger than expected growth according to the final quarter of 2016 GDP reading, wage growth has weakened and exports face uncertainties. The current interest rate is at 0.5% and analysts are not expecting a change at this time.

 

Event: Australia Employment Change (March)

Date: Thursday 13 April 2017 at 01:30 GMT

Markets affected: AUD/USD, GBP/AUD

Trending hashtags: #aud, #jobs

 

Last month saw a reduction of new jobs added to the Australian economy by -6,400, in stark contrast to the expected gain of 16,300. Overall work participation rate remained unchanged at 64% but the unemployment rate soared to a more than 1-year high at 5.9%. Analysts are optimistic again and forecasting for 20,300 new jobs to have been added in March, with unemployment staying steady at 5.9%.


Event: Germany Consumer Price Index (March)

Date: Thursday 13 April 2017 at 06:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, DAX

Trending hashtags: #eur, #cpi, #dax

 

German inflation data is due out early Thursday morning with the Consumer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The data compares an average price change of a basket of goods and services from one month to the next. If prices increase it signifies inflation which in turn may drive up the euro as investor seek higher returns for their currency holdings. Last February’s increase over January was 1.6% and analysts are expecting a similar increase for March.

 

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/trade-made-canada-great-bank-of-canada-governor-stephen-poloz

https://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-weekly-outlook-april-10-14/

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