Senior Analyst

Passionate about the markets, the excitement, the story driving the markets at the time, the fundamentals and even the technicals.

Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 13 March. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. We see a slow start to the beginning of this week with all the action coming out of the US on Wednesday including the anticipated interest rate decision from the Fed.

Event: US Retail Sales

Date: Wednesday 15 March 2017 at 12:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #retailsales

The US Census Bureau will be releasing the percentage change of retail sales for the month of February. This is a closely followed indicator showing how much consumers are spending and therefore how optimistic they are about the economy. A high reading may be good for the US dollar though the markets are only expecting a 0.2% change which is less than the previous month’s reading of 0.4%.

Event: US Consumer Price Index

Date: Wednesday 15 March 2017 at 12:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #cpi

The same time on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the all-important CPI which measures the year-on-year change for the month of February. This figure analyses changes in the price of a basket of shopping goods and services as a way to gauge the purchasing power of the US dollar. As well as giving insights into purchasing trends, the CPI figure also indicates what impact inflation may be having on the greenback. The previous month’s figure came in at a 2.5% change, the biggest rise over a 12 month period for the last five years. A high reading this month may be good for the USD.


Event: US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Date: Wednesday 15 March 2017 at 18:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, S&P500, NDQ, DOW

Trending hashtags: #usd, #interestrate, #fed

The big event on this week’s calendar is the long-awaited interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of an interest rate hike and last week’s positive jobs data is adding fuel to the expectation. Nonfarm payrolls came in last Friday at 235,000 increase for February, surpassing expectations of 190,000 and average hourly earnings also increased 0.2%.

Event: Japan Interest Rate Decision

Date: Thursday 16 March 2017 at 02:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, NKI

Trending hashtags: #jpy, #nikkei

The Bank of Japan kept its rate unchanged at its last meeting even while it forecasted faster growth for the nation. The Board voted to continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing for as long as it takes to reach its inflation target of 2.0%, currently is sits around 0%. Unemployment is at 3.1% which may see higher wages and the Bank is hoping this will mean more consumption and higher prices. The interest rate is now at -0.1% in sharp contrast with US central bank that is in a rate hike cycle.

Later on Thursday we also have the Swiss interest rate decision by the SNB at 08:30 and the UK rate decision by the BOE due at 12:00. Markets are not expecting to see any changes by either of the central banks.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/most-investors-are-convinced-the-march-fed-rate-hike-is-a-go.html

https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/japan/interest-rate

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