Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 20 February. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. This week is sandwiched between two key Australian events, we get the UK GDP data, CPI out of Europe, Retail Sales from Canada and we’ll get the report from the US FOMC meeting.
Event: Australia RBA Meeting’s Minutes
Date: Tuesday 21 February 2017 at 00:30 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/USD
Trending hashtags: #aussie, #aud, #rba
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release their meeting minutes giving an account of their monetary policy discussion. It provides a glimpse into different bank members’ views. A hawkish view on reaching inflation targets may indicate an interest rate hike in the future which may be positive for the Aussie dollar.
Event: UK GDP Data Q4
Date: Wednesday 22 February 2017 at 09:30 GMT
Markets affected: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #gbp , #gdp, #sterling
Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter in the UK was confirmed at 0.5% growth with consumer spending being the main driving force behind it. A weak pound has resulted in a positive balance of payments with exports ahead of imports. Analysts are expecting a drop in growth to 1.4% for this year compared to last year’s 2.1% growth due to a contraction in business investments. For this Q4 data release, economists are forecasting 0.6% growth, anything much different on either side of that figure may have repercussions on the pound.
Event: EU Consumer Price Index – core Y-o-Y (January)
Date: Wednesday 22 February 2017 at 10:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #eur, #cpi
Eurostat will release the changes in the prices of goods and services on Wednesday. This is a key reading in understanding purchasing trends and inflation in general for the Eurozone. Last reading came in at 1.8% and analysist are expecting a similar result this time round, however a high reading may be bullish for the euro.
Event: Canada Retail Sales (December)
Date: Wednesday 22 February 2017 at 13:30 GMT
Markets affected: CAD/USD
Trending hashtags: #cad, #retail
Retail Sales for Canada in November last year were hugely disappointing at 0.2%. The market had been factoring in a 0.5% increase. Year-on-year, retail sales grew 3%. Statistics Canada conducts a monthly survey of around 80 large retailers and provides an analysis on sales based on Canada’s largest food, clothing, home furnishings, electronics and sporting goods.
Event: US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Date: Wednesday 22 February 2017 at 19:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #usd, #fomc
The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting last December showed the Fed raise interest rates for the first time in 12 months. This followed a triumphant Trump who was voted in as President for the US last November and the positive market response. Promises on infrastructure spending and corporate tax cuts with reduced regulations were all good news for the markets and the US dollar. The economy has continued to perform positively with the FOMC expecting growth to hit 2.1% for 2017 – marginally higher than the 2% that was projected last September, before the election result. USD traders may be on the watch for more positive comments on the state of the economy with a view to more increases to the interest rate.
Event: Governor Phillip Lowe’s Speech
Date: Thursday 22 February 2017 at 22:30 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/USD
Trending hashtags: #aud, #rba, #philliplowe
The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe will be speaking before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Lowe has been encouraging the Government to spend more on infrastructure and in stark contrast to US President Trump’s trade policies – he prefers an open global trading environment. At his last speech he noted that with an improving global economy, local growth should average at 3% over the next few years and for mining to get back on track.