Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 25 September. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. We have a big data week for the UK coming up with key economic indicators due from GDP to inflation. Investors will be trying to digest the news of two national elections from Germany and New Zealand. And the week ends with economic growth figures from the US.
Event: UK Inflation Report Hearings
Date: Tuesday 26 September 2016 at 08:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD
Trending hashtags: #sterling, #gbp, #inflation
The UK economy has been slow to show the effects of Brexit due to a low pound keeping prices high but now with the Consumer Price Index at 2.6% and predicted to hit 2.8%, the Bank of England has started hinting at raising interest rates. Sterling bulls will be on the lookout for comments on Tuesday’s inflation report hearings that might further indicate a rate hike which may support the pound.
Event: UK Gross Domestic Product Q2
Date: Wednesday 27 September 2016 at 08:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD
Trending hashtags: #sterling, #gbp, #gdp
Britain’s GDP grew 0.3% in the first quarter compared to the 4th quarter of the previous year and analysts are expecting to see similar growth in the second quarter. On a yearly basis Q1 saw a 1.7% growth, and again the expectation is for the same increase for Q2. Brexit is finally making an impact on the UK economy and many are expecting similarly low results for the Q2 GDP report.
Event: New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
Date: Wednesday 27 September 2016 at 21:00 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/NZD, NZD/USD
Trending hashtags: #nzd, #interestrate
During its August meeting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at the all-time low of 1.75%. More recently the kiwi dollar has been feeling pressure from low trade balance data and slow growth in gross domestic data. New Zealanders have just voted for their parliamentary elections and the final result is still unclear. The standing National party received 46% of the vote with Labour on 35.8%, the Greens on 5.9% and New Zealand First on 7.5% – what will happen next is a series of negotiations where the smaller parties will decide which of the two major parties they will align with. What this means is that political uncertainty is still high and we’re unlikely to see the bank make any changes to the interest rate this month.
Event: EU Economic Sentiment
Date: Thursday 28 September 2017 at 09:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #eur
A collection of sentiment data is due from the Eurozone on Thursday. Beginning with Consumer Confidence that came in at a low -1.2% at the previous reading. Following that we have Services Sentiment which was 14.9, Industrial Confidence was 5.1and the Business Climate being the only indicator forecasted to increase from 1.09 to 1.11. Overall Economic Sentiment has been sitting at 111.9 and forecasts are for a slight increase to 112.0. If the positive economic view of consumers increases it may well be good news for the common currency.
Event: US Gross Domestic Product Q2
Date: Thursday 28 September 2017 at 13:30 GMT
Markets affected: USD/JPY, EUR/USD
Trending hashtags: #usd, #gdp
Gross Domestic Product for the US saw an annualised change of 3% last quarter and the expectation for the second quarter is for a similar change at 3% increase. An hour earlier, on the same day, we have the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures report for the US. The Bureau of Economic Analysis analyses the average spent by consumers on a monthly basis of durable goods and services making it a key indicator of inflation. Expectations are for the consumption figure to stand pat at 0.9% again this month.