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Market Outlook

Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 03 July. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. This week we have some heavy hitting indicators coming in from all markets including UK, Europe and the US. Don’t forget, as it’s the first week of a new month, the all-important Non-Farm payrolls data will be released on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

Event: Eurozone Unemployment Rate (May)

Date: Monday 03 July 2017 at 09:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Trending hashtags: #eu, #eur

April’s figure for unemployment in the Eurozone came in at 9.3%, a little better than the expected 9.4%. This was the lowest rate of those without a job since March 2009. Expectations for May are for the figure to stay the same at 9.3%.

Event: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)

Date: Monday 03 July 2017 at 14:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Trending hashtags: #manufacturing, #usd

May’s ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.9 and the expectations for this latest release for June is an even better 55. The Institute for Supply Management’s index gives insights into the health of the manufacturing sector for the US and is a good barometer for the overall robustness of the economy. A figure above 50 is considered positive and that tends to give a boost to the US dollar.

Event: RBA Interest Rate Decision

Date: Tuesday 04 July 2017 at 04:30 GMT

Markets affected: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Trending hashtags: #aud, #rba

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing their interest rate decision on Tuesday and most analysts are expecting for them to retain the cash rate at its current level of 1.5%. With a drop in iron ore prices, a key export for the nation, and a decline in mining, some are forecasting comments from the RBA that may indicate future changes to the rate and that may affect the Aussie dollar. On the other hand, inflation has been slowing increasing hand in hand with the Australian economy so the central bank may just keep the status quo for now.

Event: ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

Date: Wednesday 05 July 2017 at 07:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Trending hashtags: #eur, #ecb

The European Central Bank has made comments of reducing its purchasing programme by September or October this year which may signal the beginning of tightening its currently loose monetary policy. Traders will be on the lookout for more of this sentiment by the central bank as it’s proving positive for the common currency, the euro.

Event: FOMC Meeting

Date: Wednesday 05 July 2017 at 18:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY

Trending hashtags: #fomc, #usd

In sharp contrast to the ECB, the Fed is on an interest rate increase cycle for 2017 with one more increase in the pipeline. Recent soft data on the US economy and doubts over the Trump administration’s abilities to put through their infrastructure spending programmes may put a spanner in the works. Wednesday’s meeting may shed more light into the current thinking of the Fed and we may see some moves for the greenback.

Event: Australia Balance of Trade (May)

Date: Thursday 06 July 2017 at 01:30 GMT

Markets affected: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Trending hashtags: #aud, #rba

Australia’s balance of trade went into negative territory for the month of April with the surplus reducing drastically to $0.555 billion. This was a massive 82.5% drop from March’s figure on $3.169 billion. The expectation for May was $1.95 billion so the actual release came in well under.



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