Senior Analyst

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Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 7 August. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Most of this week’s action is focussed in China and down under. China and UK trade balance is due out, along with inflation figures from China. Consumer and business confidence comes in from Australia and the interest rate decision from New Zealand.

 

Event: China Trade Balance (July)

Date: Tuesday 08 August 2017 at 02:00 GMT

Markets affected: USD/CNH, AUD/USD

Trending hashtags: #cnh, #yuan

 

China Trade Balance for July is due out on Tuesday. June’s trade surplus for the nation retracted to $42.75 billion. This was better than analysts’ expectation of $42.44 billion. The aussie dollar has shown a lot of sensitivity recently around China releases due to it being its largest trade partner, so July’s trade data will be closely followed by aussie bulls.

 

Event: Australia Consumer Confidence

Date: Wednesday 09 August 2017 at 00:30 GMT

Markets affected: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD

Trending hashtags: #aud

 

Consumer confidence for Australia has yo-yoed in recent months with a 1.8% fall in June followed by 0.4% rise to 96.6 in July. The business confidence report is also due out which has shown growth from 7 index points in May to 9 points in June. Analysts are forecasting a return to the May figure for July.

 

Event: China Consumer Price Index (July)

Date: Wednesday 09 August 2017 at 01:30 GMT

Markets affected: USD/CNH, AUD/USD

Trending hashtags: #cnh, #yuan

 

The consumer price index in China experienced its best month for the year in June. The inflation report came in at 1.5% annualised growth. For the July release, markets are expecting a fall to 1.4% which may put pressure on both the yuan and its export dependent partner, the aussie dollar.

 

Event: New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

Date: Wednesday 09 2017 at 21:00 GMT

Markets affected: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD

Trending hashtags: #nzd, #kiwi

 

New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not made changes to the interest rate for a number of months keeping it at record lows of 1.75%. Analysts are not expecting any changes to the official cash rate this year as the RBNZ expressed concerns over surplus capacity.

 

Event: UK Balance of Trade

Date: Thursday 10 August 2017 at 08:30 GMT

Markets affected: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

Trending hashtags: #gbp, #trade, #ftse

 

Last month’s balance of trade release for May saw the pound fall as the UK’s trade deficit increased by £1.0 billion to £3.1 billion. The fall of the pound against the USD was compounded by better than expected jobs data out of the US, something that was repeated in last Friday’s NFP release. At the same time, the weaker pound spurred on the FTSE 100 bulls. It will be interesting to note if the balance of trade release will have similar effects on both the sterling and the footsie this time around.

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