Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

It will be an important day for the markets as investors are expected to receive a ton of important data. Earlier today, Japan released the trade data for the month of May. The numbers showed that in the month, exports declined by -7.8%. This was lower than the expected decline of -7.7%. Imports declined by -1.5%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.2%. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed slightly to Y967 billion. This data is the latest evidence of the impact on trade that countries are experiencing.

Traders will receive economic data from Sweden. The country will release the employment, manufacturing confidence, and consumer confidence. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 6.2% in April to 6.5% in May. At the same time, the consumer confidence is expected to improve from 91 to 95.2. The manufacturing confidence is expected to reduce from 103.7 to 103.4. The chart below shows the performance of the Swedish krone ahead of the data.

In the United Kingdom, investors will receive the inflation numbers. As you know, inflation numbers are very essential as policymakers make interest rates decision. Higher inflation rates usually lead to easing while lower interest rates usually lead to tightening. The headline CPI in the country is expected to reduce from 2.1% to 2.0% on a YoY basis. On a MoM basis, the CPI is expected to reduce from 0.6% to 0.3%. The core CPI is expected to decline from 1.8% to 1.6% on a YoY basis. The house price index is expected to decline from 1.4% to 1.1% while the retail price index is expected to decline from 3.0% to 2.9%.

In Canada, the country will release the inflation numbers. The headline data is expected to show that the inflation increased from 2.0% to 2.1%. On a MoM basis, the headline CPI is expected to have declined from 0.4% to 0.1%. The core CPI, which strips the volatile food and energy products is expected to have eased from 1.5% to 1.2%. On a MoM basis, it is expected to rise to 0.1%. The chart below shows the performance of the USD/CAD pair ahead of the CPI data.

The EIA will also release the crude oil inventories data. The number is expected to show that the crude inventories declined by 1.077 million barrels after rising by 2.2 million barrels in the previous month. The weekly distillates stocks are expected to increase by 0.712M barrels after falling by 1 million barrels a week ago. The gasoline inventories are expected to increase by 0.935M after rising by 0.764M barrels in the past week. The chart below shows the performance of the WTI and Brent crude oil ahead of the data.

Finally, traders will receive the Fed interest rates decision. The bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.50%. The most important news of the day will be the accompanying Fed statement and the press conference that will follow 30 minutes later.

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