Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

The kiwi rose slightly today in the Asian session after New Zealand released its CPI data for the second quarter. The data showed that the CPI rose to an annualized rate of 1.7%, which was higher than the previous 1.5%. This was in line with the expectations. On a QoQ basis, the CPI rose to 0.6% from the previous 0.1%. The CPI is an important indicator of inflation. The quarterly gain was driven by the increase in petrol and rent. Petrol prices rose by 5.8% in the second quarter after declining by 1.7% in the first quarter. Housing costs too rose by 1% in the quarter and has increased by 2.5% this year. These gains were offset by the decline in air fares and used cars.

In neighboring Australia, the Aussie declined slightly after the RBA released its minutes for the previous meeting. The minutes showed that the officials were comfortable with another rate cut in the next meetings. In the meeting, the officials slashed interest rates by another 25 basis points after slashing in June. This makes the RBA one of the most dovish central banks in the world.

In the United Kingdom, investors will receive the employment numbers for the month of June and May. In May, the unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 3.8%. The employment change is expected to jump from 32k to more than 42k while the claimant count is expected to decline from 23.2k to 18.9k. The average earnings index (plus bonus) is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. Without the bonus, the average earnings is expected to increase slightly to 3.5% from the previous 3.4%. This data will come as the political environment is expected to remain tense as Boris Johnson is expected to become the new prime minister. In Germany, ZEW will release the economic sentiment and current conditions data.

In the United States, investors will receive important data and information today. In June, the retail sales are expected to decline slightly from 0.5% to 0.1%. Ex gas and autos, the retail sales are expected to decline slightly from 0.5% to 0.3%. The core retail sales are expected to decline slightly from 0.5% to 0.1%. Meanwhile, the export price index is expected to decline by -1.4% in June while the import price index is expected to decline by -2.1%. The retail control data is expected to have declined slightly from 0.4% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, data from the Federal Reserve System is expected to show that the manufacturing production in June is expected to have remained unchanged at 0.2% while industrial production is expected to decline from 0.4% to 0.1%. The market will also listen to senior Fed officials like Jerome Powell and Raphael Bostic.

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