Although the Eurozone economy gained momentum over the past few months, uncertainty looms with the European Central Bank gearing up to begin unwinding its monetary stimulus. Amid this uncertainty, there is growing interest in the market-moving indicators for November.
November 2: Germany Unemployment Rate (October)
Germany’s adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.6% in September, from 5.7% in August, the lowest since in 1990. The rate is expected to remain at 5.6% in October. The nation’s seasonally adjusted jobless total declined by a staggering 23,000 to 2.506 million in September, following a decline of 6,000 in August and coming in significantly better than the market expectations of a 5,000 drop. The estimate for October stands at a decline of 5,000.
November 3: US Balance of Trade (September), US Non-Farm Payrolls (October)
America’s trade deficit narrowed to US$42.4 billion in August, from US$43.6 billion in July. Expectations are for a substantial widening of the deficit to US$45 billion in September. Also, US non-farm payrolls fell sharply by 33,000 in September, significantly below market expectations of a 90,000 gain. The market consensus stands at an optimistic 300,000 increase in October.
November 9: Germany Balance of Trade (September), UK Balance of Trade (September)
Germany’s trade surplus expanded marginally to €20 billion in August, following an increase to €19.5 billion in July. Meanwhile, the UK’s trade deficit widened to £5.63 billion in August, from £4.24 billion in July, significantly higher than market expectations of a £2.80 billion gap and marking the largest trade deficit since September 2016.
November 14: Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3), Germany GDP Growth (Q3), Germany Economic Sentiment (November), Italy GDP Growth (Q3), UK Inflation Rate (October)
The Eurozone economy expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2017, following an expansion of 2% in the first quarter. Expectations are for growth to accelerate marginally to 2.4% in the third quarter. Germany recorded GDP growth of 2.1% in the second quarter and is likely to report 2.2% growth for the third quarter. Economic Sentiment in the country rose to 17.6 in October, although missing market expectations of a reading of 20. Meanwhile, Italy’s economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter and is widely expected to accelerate to 1.7% in the third quarter. Also, the UK is expected to report a rise in its inflation rate to 3.2% in October, from the 3% reported for September.
November 15: US Inflation Rate (October)
Inflation rate in the US rose to 2.2% in September, from 1.9% in August. The rate is widely expected to revert to 1.9% in October.
November 16: France Unemployment Rate (Q3)
France recorded an unemployment rate of 9.5% in the second quarter of 2017, down marginally from 9.6% in the prior quarter, and representing the lowest jobless rate since the first quarter of 2012. Moreover, the nation’s employment rate rose to 65.3%, the highest recording since 1980. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.5% in the third quarter.
November 22: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (November)
The Eurozone consumer confidence index rose to -1 in October, from -1.2 in September, representing the highest reading since April 2001. Expectations are for a slight decline in the index to almost -1.1 in November.
November 23: Germany Manufacturing PMI (November)
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) declined slightly to 60.5 in October, from 60.6 in September, which was the largest increase in manufacturing since April 2011. The market consensus for November calls for a decline to below 60.
November 24: Germany Business Climate Index (November)
Germany’s Business Climate Index declined to 115.2 in September, from 115.7 in August, and came in significantly below market expectations of a reading of 116. Despite the disappointment, estimates continue to be pegged above the 116 mark for November.
November 28: UK GDP Growth (Q3)
The UK economy expanded 1.5% in the second quarter of 2017, missing expectations of 1.7% growth and below the 1.8% recorded in the prior quarter. There are wide speculations of further deceleration in the third quarter to 1.4%.
November 29: Eurozone Business Confidence (November), Germany Inflation Rate (November), US GDP Growth (Q3)
Eurozone’s Business Climate Indicator rose to 1.34 in September, after inching up to 1.08 in August. The September reading handsomely beat expectations and was the highest since April 2011. The market consensus calls for declines in October and November to reach a reading below 1. Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation rate came in at 1.8% in September, unchanged from the August reading. The country’s inflation rate is widely expected to remain the same in October and November. In another part of the world, the US economy grew 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017 and the rate is expected to decelerate to 2% in the third quarter.
November 30: Eurozone Unemployment Rate (October)
The Eurozone unemployment rate came in at 9.1% in August, remaining unchanged from the July and June recordings. The rate is expected to remain at the same level in September and October.