Although the EU continues to face severe challenges to growth, the economy is making progress. Jobs are being added and private consumption is rising. As trends begin to gradually improve, here’s a look into the market-moving indicators for October.
October 2: Eurozone Unemployment Rate (August)
Eurozone’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1% in July, in-line with expectations. This was the lowest jobless figure reported since February 2009. The market consensus calls for a decline in the unemployment rate to 9% in August.
October 5: US Balance of Trade (August)
The US trade deficit widened to US$43.7 billion in July, from US$43.5 billion in June. The market was expecting a bigger gap of US$44.6 billion. Expectations are for the deficit to widen further to US$45 billion in August.
October 10: Germany Balance of Trade (August)
Germany’s trade surplus expanded marginally to €19.5 billion in July, from €19.1 billion in July 2016. However, the July gap missed market expectations of €21.1 billion and was lower than the trade surplus of €22.3 billion reported for the previous month.
October 17: Germany Economic Sentiment (October), UK Inflation Rate (September)
Germany’s economic sentiment index surged to 17 in September, beating market expectations of 12.5. This followed a sharp dip in the index to 10 in August, which was the lowest reading since October 2016. The German economy delivered strong growth in Q2 of 2017, accompanied by a sharp increase in bank lending and investment activities. Despite this, the index is widely expected to fall to 6.24 in October. The UK is expected to report a decline in its inflation rate to 2.5% in September, from the 2.9% reported for August.
October 23: Eurozone Consumer Confidence (October)
The Eurozone consumer confidence index rose to -1.2 in September, from -1.5 in August, representing the highest reading since April 2001. Expectations are for a further improvement in the index to -1.1 in October.
October 24: Germany Manufacturing PMI (October)
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) improved to 60.6 in September, from 59.3 in August. The September reading not only beat market expectations of 59, but represented the largest increase in manufacturing since April 2011. The market consensus for the October figure is pegged at a decline to around 60.
October 25: Germany Business Climate Index (October), UK GDP Growth (Q3)
Germany’s Business Climate Index declined to 115.9 in August, from a record high of 116 in July. The index is widely expected to breach the 116 mark in September and improve further in October. Meanwhile, UK economy expanded 1.7% in the second quarter of 2017 and market projections for the third quarter reflect 1.8% economic growth.
October 26: Eurozone Interest Rate Decision
The European Central Bank kept its benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 0% at its September meeting. Policymakers indicated that the rate is unlikely to be raised in the near term.
October 26: US GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
The US economy grew 3% in the second quarter of 2017, above market expectations of 2.7%, and was the strongest growth rate since the January to March quarter of 2015. Expectations are for economic growth to decelerate to 2% in the third quarter.
October 30: Eurozone Business Confidence (October), Spain GDP Growth Rate (Q3), Germany Unemployment Rate (October)
Eurozone’s Business Climate Indicator inched up to 1.09 in August, from 1.04 in July, beating market expectations of a 1.06 reading. The market consensus for October is pegged at 1.02. Meanwhile, Spain’s economy grew 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017 and the rate is widely expected to decelerate to 2.8% in the third quarter. Germany’s adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.7% in August, the lowest since in 1990. The rate is expected to remain at 5.7% in September and rise to 5.9% in October.
October 31: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate (Q3), France GDP Growth Rate (Q3)
The Eurozone economy advanced 2.3% in the second quarter of 2017, accelerating from the 2% expansion in the previous quarter. GDP growth is expected to contract back to 2% in the third quarter. The French economy grew 0.5% in the first two quarters of the year and is likely to grow at the same pace in the third quarter.