Financial markets have been numb waiting on whether and to what extent Trump’s tariffs will impact the global economy. According to Bloomberg, yesterday Trump said he seeks to impose a $50 billion tariff against China – under the premise of intellectual property infractions. It is widely known that Chinese manufacturers have produced off-brand items and relabeled products known as “clones” for decades. The announcement and signing of the order to impose the tariff is slated for today.
China has come to symbolize Trump’s obsession with the U.S. trade deficit and catalyst for his argument against participation in the global economy and protectionist economic stance. Some analysts are saying that this tariff may sounds the horns of a full-out trade war – with China immediately retaliating with its own tariffs against U.S. goods and raw materials.
Non-the-less the dollar seems to be on the rise since yesterday, but remained banded within strong support and resistance limits.
What inevitably bolstered the USD increase was the FOMC rate hike and a boost in the GDP forecast.
Still looking to the west, Theresa May is still on campaign against Russia due to the assassination of Sergei Skripal with a Soviet era develop nerve agent. Now May is trying to appeal to her European counterparts to expel Russian spies much like the 23 Russian diplomats she expelled from the UK.
May is also preparing a list of proposed sanction against Russian interest within the UK, including targeting Russian “elites” alleged illegal activities and freezing assets held by the Russian government in England that can be associated with illicit actions.
Although this might not have immediate economic effect, the UK receives large amounts of Russian produced energy commodities. Nearly half of all the natural gas used in England is imported from Russia.
Another noteworthy news item was Bloomberg’s report on Allianz Global Investors, one of Europe’s biggest funds, is buying USD against its other major currency counterparts, even though it has been outperformed by most of these same counterparts (including GBP, EUR and CAD) in the last few months. The fund mentioned the depreciation of the US dollar since last year but its fiscal expansion and interest-rate hikes means this drop may reverse as other currencies’ yields flatline.