Last week was an important one for the market mostly because of the US mid-term elections and the Federal Reserve. This week, the market may be relatively calm, with no major central bank expected to release its interest rates decision. This article will look at the biggest news that traders will look at this week.
Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia announced that it will reduce crude supplies by 500K barrels per day. This was important news that saw the price of crude rise in the Asian session. The news was announced by the Energy minister who said that the country was anticipating low demand for the sector. This is likely to lead to confrontation between Saudi and Russia as OPEC+1 oil ministers meet. It will also likely attract criticism from the US president. On Wednesday, OPEC will release its monthly outlook that will show investors the state of the oil market. On the same day, EIA will release its inventory numbers. Last week, the numbers showed that inventories from the United States rose by 5.7 million barrels.
This will be an important week for the United Kingdom. On Tuesday, the country will release the employment numbers. The average wage (ex-bonus) is expected to show that wages rose by 3.1%, which will be unchanged from the previous month. Wages plus bonus are expected to show an increase by 3.0%, which will be higher by 2.7%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0% while the claimant count is expected to improve to 4.3K from September’s 18.5K.
ON Wednesday, the country will release its CPI numbers. These numbers are expected to show that the CPI increased by an annualized rate of 2.5%, which will be higher than the 2.4% increase in September. The core CPI, which strips the volatile energy and food prices is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9%. The PPI input, which measures the change in price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers is expected to rise by 9.6%, which will be lower than the previous increase of 10.3%.
On Thursday, the UK will release its retail sales numbers. These numbers are expected to show that retail sales increased by an annualized rate of 2.8%, which will be lower than the previous 3.0%. The core retail sales are expected to rise by 3.3%.
Other than the UK CPI, other countries will release their CPI data this week. On Wednesday, the US will release the monthly CPI numbers. These are expected to show that the CPI increased by 2.5% in October. This will be higher than the 2.3% in the previous month. The closely-watched core CPI number is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%. This will be followed by the retail sales which will be released a day later. On Friday, the EU will release its inflation numbers. Traders expect the CPI to be unchanged at 2.2%.
There is other important data to be released this week. On Tuesday, traders will receive the ZEW sentiment from Germany and the OPEC monthly report. On Wednesday, they will receive the Japanese GDP numbers, China’s industrial production numbers, EU GDP numbers, and Germany GDP numbers. On Thursday, they will receive the employment numbers from Australia, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing numbers, and speeches from Fed officials.