Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

As with last week, traders will focus on the deteriorating relations between the US and China.  Last week, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth more than $200 billion. China said that it will retaliate but its options are relatively limited. This week, the Trump administration is set to release a list of $300 billion worth of Chinese goods that it will put tariffs on. The current crisis started after the US accused China of having bad faith in the ongoing negotiations. It also started as Trump grew concerned on whether the deal being negotiated will have any impact on the US. Over the weekend, Trump’s senior advisor, Larry Kudlow said that a deal could also be signed next month at the G20 summit in Japan.

Traders will also focus on crude oil. In the past few weeks, the price of crude has eased the upward momentum as traders continue to focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will happen in June. Tomorrow, OPEC will release the monthly report that will shed light on the demand and supply situation. This report will show investors whether OPEC members like Saudi Arabia continued lowering the supplies after Iran was pushed away from the market.

On Friday, the much-hyped Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Uber disappointed. The company raised more than $8.1 billion and was valued at more than $72 billion. As a public company, the company’s stock declined by more than 4%. It is now valued at $69 billion. This is a significantly lower valuation compared to what investors were expecting. A few weeks ago, the expectation was that the company would receive a valuation of more than $120 billion. As the IPO neared, investors started to question the company’s growing losses. The IPO was also dampened by the disappointing one by Lyft. This week, traders will continue to look at how the stock performs.

Tomorrow, Germany will release its CPI data for the month of April. Investors expect the CPI to remain unchanged at an annual rate of 2.0%. The headline CPI is expected to remain at 1.0%. The Wholesale Price Index is expected to rise by 1.5%, which is lower than the expected 1.8%. In Spain, the headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%. The harmonized CPI too is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6%. In Sweden, the headline CPI is expected to increase by 2.0% from the previous 1.9%.  In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment is expected to increase to 5.1 from the previous 3.1 . EU’s industrial production is expected to slide by -0.3%.

On Wednesday, the Chinese industrial production is expected to rise by an annualized rate of 6.5%, which will be lower than the previous 8.5%. The retail sales are expected to rise by 8.6%, which will be lower than the previous 8.7%. The Fixed Asset Investment is expected to increase by 6.4%. In the EU, the forst quarter GDP is expected to increase by an annualized rate of 1.2%. On a quarterly basis, the GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%. In Canada, the headline CPI is expected to rise by 2.0% while the core CPI is expected to increase by 1.8%.

On Thursday, Australia will release its employment data. The unemployment rate and the participation rate are expected to remain unchanged at 5% and 65.7% respectively. The employment change is expected to be more than 15.2K, lower than the previous month’s 25.7K. In the US, the building permits for April are expected to rise by 0.5% to 1.290 million. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to rise to 10.

On Friday, the EU is expected to release the CPI data. The data is expected to show that the CPI rose by a YoY rate of 1.7%. The core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.2%.

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