This week begins the second half and the third quarter of the year. Over the weekend, the biggest news came from Donald Trump’s Twitter feed. In a tweet, the president said that he had asked the king of Saudi Arabia to increase crude supply by about two million barrels and he agreed. Trump argued that the price of crude was so high and could get higher as he stifles Iran and Venezuela. This week, traders will be following closely the issue of crude because it comes just a week after the OPEC member countries made a deal to increase output by about 600K barrels a day.
This week, we expect a number of high-quality data that could move markets. The first major data will come today from China, which is expected to release the Caixing Manufacturing PMI. This is a number that gives traders an indication of the performance of purchasing managers. The Chinese data will be important because it will give traders an indication of the manufacturing industry in China. Traders expect the number to remain unchanged at 51.1. This is still lower than the figure of 51.5 where the index was in January.
Traders will also wait for the employment numbers from the United States. Recently, several large companies like General Motors and Harley-Davidson have announced that they were preparing to move their operations overseas because of Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, traders will wait to see whether the issue of a trade war has caused employers to slow down on the hiring. On Thursday, ADP will release the employment figures in the private sector. The numbers are expected to show that 190K people were employed in June. This will be higher than the 178K released in June.
On Friday, we will get the official employment numbers from the Labour Department. Traders expect the unemployment rate to remain in 3.8%. They also expect the number of people employed to fall from last month’s 218K to 187K. While all these numbers are important, traders will still focus on the wage growth in the country. They expect the average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5 and the average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%.
Another important thing traders will pay close attention to will be Brexit. This week, Theresa May – who is facing a challenge from her cabinet – will meet the ministers at her countryside retreat to hammer a deal. This deal will be unlikely and we are likely to see a number of resignations. May is under intense pressure from the European Union, which has threatened her with a no deal. If this happens, the UK could see some major companies exiting the country.
This week, only one major central bank will make an interest rate decision. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will make the decision. We expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50%. Traders will be paying closer attention to the statement. There are chances that the officials will point to a lower for longer, meaning the current interest rates will remain unchanged.
Other important data to be released this week will be: Japan Manufacturing numbers on Monday, Germany Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing numbers, and UK construction PMI.