Last week, the EUR/USD pair declined after the Fed sounded hawkish in its monetary policy statement. Before the meeting, traders expected the Fed to announce that the ongoing trade war left the economy at risk and that future rate hikes were at hold. In fact, before the Fed meeting, the probability of a rate hike in December had declined to about 65%. At the end of the week, the probability was above 90%.
The announcement by the Fed ended the rout on the dollar that saw major losses in the last quarter. This week, traders will start looking at the US economy. On Wednesday, they will receive the employment numbers from Automatic Data Processing (ADP). They expect that the numbers will show a 185K increase in the non-farm payrolls. On Friday, they will receive the official employment numbers from the government. They expect that the numbers will show an additional 185K. They also expect the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.8% from the current 3.9% and the average hourly earnings to grow by 0.3%.
The EUR/USD started the quarter at 1.1643. This level is at the middle level of the Bollinger Band, with the momentum indicator at 99. There is a likelihood that the pair will continue to fall ahead of the employment numbers.