Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

The EUR/USD pair is the most popular and liquid currency pair in the world. This is because it is made up of the two largest economies and most connected countries in the world. The United States and the European Union have a GDP of more than $20 trillion and $17 trillion respectively. The two regions are also very related in terms of business. Indeed, the combined annual trade of almost $700 billion.

In the past few weeks, the EUR/USD pair has declined sharply from a high of 1.1515 and today, the pair reached a low of 1.1315. The decline of the pair comes at a time when investors are increasingly worried about the weakness in the European economy. Indeed, the latest data show that the region’s economy is weakening at a faster rate than earlier expected. Just last week, the European commission lowered the guidance for the economy from 1.7% to 1.3%. Italy, one of the biggest economies in the region is currently going through a recession. This has raised the probability that the ECB will not follow through with the announced rate increases.

In the United States, the economy too is going through a slowdown. After peaking at 4.2% in the second quarter of last year, the economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter and is expected to have grown by 2.6% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve has also started to warn about the pace of future rate hikes.

Even with all this, investors seem to prefer the US dollar between the two currencies. This is because the country continues to release good numbers. For example, the jobs numbers released this month showed strong jobs numbers. They also believe that the Fed still believes in the rate increase policy only that it was criticized by key scholars and other important figures. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the EUR/USD pair will continue moving lower.

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