Crispus Nyaga

Crispus Nyaga is a Nairobi-based trader and analyst. He started trading more than 7 years ago as a student. He has published in several reputable websites like The Street, Benzinga, and Seeking Alpha. He focuses mostly on G20 currencies, commodities like Crude oil and Gold, and European and American large-cap companies.

The final quarter of the year started last week in which promises to be a consequential quarter for the oil market. In the third quarter, the price of WTI rose by 2% to reach a high of $76. This month, the price has cooled a bit and fell to $73 before starting to move up again. In this quarter, a few things may happen that could have major consequences.

On Sunday, it was reported that a Saudi journalist who is critical to the crown prince had disappeared. He was killed at the Saudi Arabia consulate in Turkey. The backlash that followed this killing may have impacts in the crude oil market. In the United States, there have been calls to re-examine the relationship between the US and Saudi. Yesterday, the US president said that he was concerned about the issue. Very soon, there is a chance that we will see sanctions for Saudi Arabia.

This quarter too, the full US sanctions on Iran may take effect. These are heavy sanctions that may affect the country significantly. Traders may believe that the intervention by the EU and Russia to save the Iran deal may have impact also. The reality is that with the US sanctions, no Western country will continue to work in Iran. Finally, this quarter, there will be the annual OPEC meeting. They will likely reaffirm the continued restriction in supply. Therefore, it is possible that the price of WTI will reach the $80 level this quarter.

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